Tories on brink of electoral WIPE OUT: Devastating poll gives Labour a majority of THREE HUNDRED with Conservatives only just beating Lib Dems

Millie Cooke

By Millie Cooke


Published: 31/05/2024

- 21:01

Updated: 31/05/2024

- 21:01

The large-scale MRP polling suggests the Tories would return just seven more MPs than the Liberal Democrats

The Conservative Party could be reduced to just 66 seats at the next election, as a devastating new poll has put the party on course for an election wipeout.

With tactical voting taken into account, Labour is predicted to win by a landslide with a 302-seat majority, returning 476 seats.


The large-scale MRP polling suggests the Tories would return just seven more MPs than the Liberal Democrats who were predicted to win 59 seats.

The survey also predicts 18 Conservative Cabinet Members could lose their seats.

Starmer/Sunak

The Conservative Party could be reduced to just 66 seats at the next election, as a devastating new poll has put the party on course for an election wipeout

PA

While the Tories would be the Official Opposition, they would have less than half of the opposition MPs.

The forecast Labour victory would be larger than Tony Blair's landslide in 1997 - which saw him win 419 seats.

It would hand them the largest win by any party in modern parliamentary history, except for 1931. Even without tactical voting taken into account, the 72 seats the Conservatives would likely return would be the party's worst result since at least 1900.

Cabinet ministers Oliver Dowden, James Cleverly, Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Kemi Badenoch, Claire Coutinho, Mel Stride, Gillian Keegan, Mark Harper, David Davies, Victoria Prentis, Esther McVey, Andrew Mitchell and Johnny Mercer are predicted to lose seats to Labour.

Alex Chalk and Michael Tomlinson are expected to lose their seats to the Lib Dems, while Alister Jack would lose to the SNP. Simon Hart could lose his seat to Plaid Cymru, the polling shows.

Reform UK would not return any MPs under the survey's predictions.


The polling, which was calibrated to match the average of recent national polls to reduce any poll bias and sampling errors, saw the Conservatives secure just 19 per cent support.

Labour received 46 per cent support, while the Lib Dems secured 10 per cent support. It puts them on course for a 39 seat gain in a parliamentary comeback which would bring them closer to the seat totals that they enjoyed from 1997 to 2015.

Despite not being predicted to win any seats, Reform UK secured 12 per cent support.

The Green Party secured eight per cent support, while the SNP and Plaid Cymru received three per cent and 0.5 per cent respectively.

The large-scale MRP polling, conducted by Electoral Calculus, surveyed 10,000 people.

One week into the election campaign, the devastating polling is likely to further ruffle feathers in the Tory camp.

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The party has unveiled a number of bold policies in what is seen as an attempt to claw back some of Labour's poll lead, pledging billions towards a plan for National Service for young people and a guarantee that pensioners will never pay income tax on the state pension.

The party has also announced plans to scrap as many as one in eight university degree places, with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak accusing universities of "ripping young people off".

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