'Britain is facing 'constitutional change' Matt Goodwin analysis of polls as Farage drops bomb on British politics

He said: "I think we need to stop talking as though we're still in the 2010s; we're in a new politics. We are approaching what many people can feel, without being too dramatic, but they can feel this is almost a civilizational moment in the sense that they don't quite understand what it is that makes ‘we in Britain’ a ‘we’ anymore.

“They're being bombarded by mass migration, the borders are out of control, we've got sectarianism that we saw in the local elections, we have debates about radical Islam and its compatibility with British society which no mainstream politician wants to have."

As new polling data reveals Reform UK leader Nigel Farage is the favourite to replace Rishi Sunak among Conservative voters, Goodwin gives his assessment of the future of British politics.

Party polls show Labour 46%, Conservatives 22%, Reform 10%, Lib Dems 8%, Green 8%.

Goodwin said: “We have next to no evidence that Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party are turning the Titanic around. They are still heading straight for a heavy and historic loss while Labour are heading for a very comfortable majority.

"Reform remains in double-digits and is still poaching more than one in five 2019 Conservative Party voters, which is bad news for Rishi Sunak to say the least.

"Rishi Sunak might have claimed that the adults were back in charge when he replaced Liz Truss but he is currently leading his party into electoral oblivion”.

As the country honours D-Day, a plurality of voters say they trust neither Labour nor the Conservatives when it comes to defending them in a future world war.

Goodwin said: “When voters are asked who they trust more to defend Britain in a future world war, Labour, on 21%, leads the Tories, on 18%, but the real story here is that a larger number, 36%, say “none of them”, while a further 25% say they don’t know.

"It appears that neither Labour nor the Tories are trusted to defend Britain in a future world war”.

Just 17% of Brits say they trust Labour to cut net migration. Prof. Matt Goodwin said: “After Labour’s intervention on legal immigration, we asked voters to what extent, if at all, they trust the Labour Party to cut the rate of net migration in Britain.

"Only 4% said they trust Labour a great deal, only 13% said they trust Labour a fair amount, while 59% said they did not trust Labour much or at all. Furthermore, it is telling that only a minority of Labour voters, 49%, said they trust the party to cut net migration. It appears that after two decades of mass immigration most voters are deeply distrustful of the two big parties on immigration”.

Nigel Farage the favourites to replace Rishi Sunak among Conservative voters.

Goodwin said: “When 2019 Conservative Party voters are asked who they want to replace Rishi Sunak, Nigel Farage leads the pack on 17%, followed by Penny Mordaunt 14%, David Cameron on 8%, and Suella Braverman on 7%.

"What this shows is Farage’s ongoing popularity among the Conservative rank-and-file and his ability, if he were allowed to re-join the party, to stage a takeover of the party”.