The Tories risk disaster on Friday... but the results could bring a surprise victory - analysis by Christopher Hope

Defeats on this scale would be a disaster for the Conservatives in seats which the party held with majorities of 24,664 (Mid-Bedfordshire) and 19,634 (Tamworth) in 2019.

And they would be in keeping with previous defeats in safe seats Somerset and Frome (won by the Liberal Democrats) and Selby and Ainsty (won by Labour).

Yet, as ever, the national picture is not everything. And already there is some surprising chatter among Tory MPs and even senior Labour figures that Tory leader Rishi Sunak can hang on to one or both seats.

The view is that in Mid-Beds, with both Labour and the Liberal Democrats campaigning hard to win, the anti-Tory vote will be split, allowing the Conservative candidate to sneak a victory.

Labour is the overwhelming favourite in Tamworth but the decision by a former Tory councillor not to stand as an independent could give the Conservatives a fighting chance, as its supporters unite behind a single candidate.

Labour is keen to play down expectations of winning both seats. One Labour strategist told me that the result in Tamworth will be a lot closer than people think.

And a Labour win in mid-Beds would be the biggest by-election reversal in electoral history. A result that - were it to be reflected nationally- would leave the Tories with just 60 MPs.

Nevertheless, the Conservatives are not surrendering these two seats without a fight. The results on Friday morning could just still produce more surprises.