The general election cannot be any earlier than November 21 if Rishi Sunak opts to go to the country after a final effort to rally the Tory troops at the party's annual conference, a leading pollster says.
Joe Twyman, founder of Deltapoll, said that the third week of November was the earliest date the Prime Minister can order a general election due to electoral governing campaign spending.
The Conservatives' party conference - when the party usually makes millions of pounds of profit - is due to be held between Sunday 29 September and Wednesday 2 October in Birmingham.
Delaying any general election until November 21 would mean that money raised at the conference - Twyman said it could be as much as £7million - is not be capped as electoral expenses.
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Twyman told GB News' Chopper's Political Podcast: "I think November the 21 is actually the most likely [date] - that's my interpretation of the rules around electoral funding and the conventions and rules around electoral timing.
"If - and it is a big if - you call the election at the end of the Conservative Party conference. My understanding is that the soonest you can then have the election would be November 21.
"That assumes the party conferences go ahead and they go ahead when they're scheduled. But assuming that's the case it's November 21."
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Joe Twyman joined Christopher Hope on Chopper's Political Podcast - available every Friday on all podcast platforms
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He added: "If they call it before then that money has to be counted within the election expenses, which would be hugely problematic."
Turning to the local council elections May 2, Twyman forecast that the Tories could lose 500 council seats, compared to winning 966 councillors last time, while Labour could win 300 council seats.
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