'The enormity of this opportunity to turn the Ukrainian tide and prevent the outbreak of a wider war in Europe must not be shunned,' says Tobias Ellwood
Make no mistake, what Ukraine has achieved with its counterpunch into Russia should make the West sit up and ask ourselves one big question: are we really doing enough to help President Zelenskyy win and prevent this conflict from advancing further into Europe?
For months now, the frontline has hardly moved, provoking more and more voices to declare that it’s time to negotiate for peace.
Any deal would likely result in new lines on the map as Ukraine is forced to cede territory in the Donbas to Russia.
President Putin would declare a form of ‘victory’ to the Motherland, enabling him to steadily regroup, re-arm and eventually attack again.
Ivan the Terrible established the precedent and it’s been the Russia way ever since: show strength through territorial advancement.
So, the geo-political ramifications of Ukraine’s incursion in Russia are huge.
In the short term, it thwarts any early prospect of peace talks, and operationally it illustrates what well-trained and motivated troops can achieve against poorly equipped Russian conscripts, despite being outnumbered. Russian soldiers are not ten feet tall.
For today’s Russian dictator, this is a huge strategic embarrassment. This is his war of choice.
He ordered the full invasion of Ukraine, and little has gone to plan but it’s costing him heavily in equipment and casualties (reported to be over a thousand a day).
Now Putin gains the unfortunate accolade of being the first leader to lose any Russian territory since World War 2.
But be in no doubt, he’ll be planning a major counterattack. This prompts the fundamental question – could Ukraine's textbook operation of a concentration of force, offensive spirit and surprise become a turning point in this 30-month war? Or will this incursion be the missed opportunity the West was too timid to exploit?
Turning points in long conflicts do not present themselves too frequently.
But arguably they don’t come any bigger than this.
For months now the front line hardly shifted.
The occasional gains were on the Russian side but, in total, far less than the entirety of the land Ukraine has captured in the Kursk region in just over a week.
If this opportunity is to be leveraged to change, the outcome of the war the West must do its part.
The utility of UK Challenger tanks in this incursion shows how, despite the advance of autonomous warfare on the battlefield (especially the utility of drones), the fundamental objective remains the same: to capture and retain terrain.
And that requires mobility, particularly, protection and firepower on the ground.
It wasn’t so long ago that big arguments raged about the escalatory risk gifting tanks might trigger.
Indeed, at the start of the conflict we limited our support to ‘defensive’ weapons only. It took Britain to display the courage again and again both by ignoring the Kremlin rhetoric and Putin’s nuclear sabre-rattling to push the envelope and by providing Ukraine with the increasing lethality that it required.
It’s time for Britain step up and lead once more. Beginning by removing all caveats preventing long range use of our Storm Shadow missiles and openly calling for the French (Scalp Missile), Germans (Taurus Missile) and Americans (ATACMS) to follow suit. Without the ability to prosecute so called ‘long range fires’ and neutralise command centres, logistical hubs and airbases from which Russian air strikes are launched, this potential turning point will be lost.
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Step back and view the bigger picture. Our world is becoming more dangerous – not less.
This is yet another alarm bell flashing on the dashboard, underscoring how the West’s bandwidth is being tested as the global threat picture deteriorates.
We turned the other way when Georgia was invaded. We shrugged our shoulders when Russia took over Crimea. We blinked before the invasion in early 2022 when we could have tasked NATO troops (as Zelensky requested) to Ukraine in order to deter the Russian army from massing on Ukraine’s borders.
If we are honest, the Ukraine invasion reflects a massive failure of European deterrence. A collective aversion to risk that Putin (and now other adversaries) are increasingly willing to exploit.
The enormity of this opportunity to turn the Ukrainian tide and prevent the outbreak of a wider war in Europe must not be shunned.
Let’s not blink again otherwise, this will be another turning point missed. A wider conflict in Europe will inevitably follow.
