'Russia is outpacing broken European militaries and Putin is relying on a weak West', says Frederick Chedham

Macron’s idea may be whimsy in real-politick terms, and Putin’s nuclear sabre rattling has been heard many times so it’s easy for ministers here to move on quickly putting aside the dreadful inadequacies and parlous state of our own armed forces. They claim, under Treasury instructions, that we meet our NATO 2% GDP target and are a major player in the supply of weapons and munitions to Ukraine.

On this complacency the case for no further investment and expenditure is made. Grandstanding speeches by the Defence Secretary and warnings of the need for conscription by the Chief of the General Staff fall on deaf ears. Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are simply not interested in defence.

If anyone believes a Labour Government will improve this situation, think again. They will gradually give away what’s left of the sorry shambles of a military into a typical EU euro-mess.

NATO knows it is a long way from being prepared to confront a Russia. It no longer has the mass and is not balanced to confront a Russia which if successful in its Ukraine enterprise will do more to roll back the perceived threat that NATO’s embrace of its former eastern satellites has created.

Russia has the advantage of being unincumbered by complex international cooperation, it can mobilise its industry and its manpower quickly and it has a tremendous offensive nuclear capability that will sit ominously in the background.

Much of its capability may be crude but in terms of available raw combat power in Central Europe in could quickly overmatch the hollowed out European armies that would face it. Russia might need to win fast and quick in a future European conflict before American might could be bought to bear, but it would fancy its chances.

The UK remains a primary member of NATO and it’s true its defence expenditure is the highest in Europe and the second highest in the NATO Alliance.

Yet its defence commitments are more global, it aspires to a power projection capability that is unlike the territorial defence roles assumed by most NATO members. It needs additional capabilities including strategic enablers that countries such as Belgium, Poland or the Czech Republic do not need.

It has almost nothing to repeal a stand-off Russian attack on our homeland. To retreat into a static defence of the Euro-Atlantic region and its flanks would overturn decades of national foreign policy a strategic realignment that no one sensible is suggesting.

All this makes reliance on the 2% GDP target as a measurement of success a false one. It has resulted in the UK having a military that exists as an exquisite shop window, when the growing threat of Russia and challenges elsewhere tells us we need an Amazon warehouse.

The neglect and shrinking of the British defence industrial base has exacerbated decades of running down the frontline commands. Privatisation, acquisition and demise of a domestic market make the current ability to regenerate force structures at scale to meet a peer opponent questionable.

Unlike the 1930’s when the country finally woke up to the threat of a European conflict the country simply does not possess the industrial footprint to turn to meet the challenge of armed forces expansion. Russia is outpacing broken European militaries even in the production of essential artillery shells.

The effect of producing militaries designed to signal political intent which are too small to fight with equipment too valuable to lose is that we are likely to do anything to avoid having to use them.

The Reform Party recognises the dangers the country faces and understands the need for increased defence expenditure.

There is much early work to be done to make the defence budget fit for purpose, but this does not change the inescapable fact that the UK cannot meet its Euro-Atlantic security responsibilities with NATO and wider defence responsibilities with just 2% of its national treasure.

The graduated raising of the defence budget to 3%, major procurement reform and re-energising an export-led strategic defence industry are vital political initiatives not just for the protection of Europe but of our own country.

Putin is relying on weak western leaders putting their heads in the sand. Let’s hope he gives us time.