Reform's rise is impressive...but the party's association with Elon Musk worries me deeply - Miriam Cates

Given the current trajectory, it now seems quite possible that Reform may even overtake the Conservative Party in the polls. This is quite a feat—the Tory party is our history's oldest and most successful political party.

Although there are still four years until the next election and a lot of water yet to go under the bridge, falling behind Reform would have a profound psychological impact on Conservatives.

Tory MPs outnumber Reform MPs almost 25 to one and will remain the official opposition until the next General Election. And yet, being overtaken by Reform in the polls would make it much harder to get their message out.

We are already seeing right-wing media outlets approaching Reform leaders first for comment on news stories, something that would have been unthinkable a year ago. There have been a number of council by-elections since the General Election, and where Reform have stood candidates, they have attracted large numbers of votes at the expense of both Conservatives and Labour.

Although the Reform leadership is now focused on growing the party’s membership base and organisational capacity, their success so far has nothing to do with how many leaflets have been delivered or any record of local public service. Rather, it is based on the popularity of Reform’s platform - especially its stance on immigration—and dissatisfaction with the established parties. This phenomenon is profoundly challenging to the belief of many in the Conservative Party that votes - and seats - can be won back through dedicated local campaigning.

This leaves the Conservative Party in a very difficult position: the only way to win back popular support is to prove that the party can be trusted—more than the Reform Party—to understand and deliver on voters’ priorities - a task that is all but impossible in opposition, especially off the back of a challenging fourteen years in government.

The continued growth of support for Reform gives Labour and the Conservatives much to fear. But despite their current success, there are plenty of hurdles ahead for Reform.

The more that Farage’s Party is seen as a serious prospect for the Government, the more scrutiny it will face, scrutiny not just of candidates but of policy. Until recently, Reform has been seen as a party of protest.

During the General Election campaign earlier this year, lots of voters in my former constituency told me they didn’t care what was in the Reform manifesto; they would vote for Farage’s party to give the Conservatives a good kicking.

But if Reform heads into the next election with the potential to win 100 or more seats in Parliament, its leaders will have to develop a credible policy platform.

The Reform Party seems already to have a coherent stance on immigration and net zero. But while these are important areas, any programme for government must include plans for education, health, foreign policy, the armed forces and the economy. And to be attractive, these policies must be drawn not from opportunism or saying what people want to hear, but stem from a coherent political philosophy.

This is where I am yet to be convinced by Reform. What economic model will it pursue? I sense that many of its key players are libertarian Thatcherites, a philosophy that is about 40 years out of date and garners little popular support. Or will Reform pursue the post-liberal, pro-industrial policies promoted by Donald Trump and JD Vance? And where does the Party stand on social issues? Its primary criticism of the Conservative party has been that it is no longer conservative, yet proportionally more Reform MPs voted in favour of assisted suicide than any other party.

Reform MPs seem united in their dislike for ‘wokeness’, but what would they do about it in Government? Will they repeal the Equality Act, Human Rights Act and Gender Recognition Act? Or just rage against the ‘blob’ as the Tories have done?

Farage has made welcome interventions on strengthening the family, but how can this be reconciled with the ultra-libertarian, transhumanist, tech-bro vision of Elon Musk? And on the subject of Musk, since I believe strongly that social media and smartphones are ruining childhood, this close association with the owner of Twitter/X worries me deeply.

Reform has voiced plenty of criticism in the past for the vested interests of the establishment parties; how will they defend coming under the influence of the richest and most powerful man the world has ever known, especially when that person is not even a British citizen? We are in a time of extraordinary flux when the postwar liberal order is breaking down.

Voters no longer display life-long loyalty to one particular party, in part because it isn’t clear what the main parties now stand for.

The Labour Party is no longer socialist, many Conservatives aren’t conservative, the Green Party cares more about Palestine than the environment, and the Liberal Democrats are most definitely not liberal. If Reform wants to take advantage of this disintegration and move from the margins to the mainstream, then the challenger party must develop a much more coherent political philosophy. Tell us what you believe in Nigel; we’re all ears.