'Keir Starmer's speech has a clear indication and those hit by looming tax hikes are going to squeal,' says Nigel Nelson

The Rose Garden is larger than you might think looking at No10 from the outside. Not big enough for a Royal garden party, but with adequate room for 50-odd people to take a late summer stroll without bumping into each other.

It’s not however the sort of place you might indulge in a spot of topless sunbathing, overlooked as it is by the Chancellor’s offices in No11 and a sizeable chunk of Whitehall.

But it is where PMs choose to hold symbolic occasions. I was there when Tony Blair stood alongside Bill Clinton so the then US president's stardust could fall on New Labour. And when David Cameron forged his coalition with Nick Clegg.

It was the place Dominic Cummings chose less successfully to explain his lockdown-breaking jaunt to Durham for an eye test, causing national hilarity.

Had Boris Johnson’s aide never heard of the advertising slogan “should have gone to Specsavers”? It was something the opticians gleefully and inevitably capitalised on.

So symbolism is what this is all about. If the PM had to make a ‘things can only get worse’ speech it’s best to do it in front of people most likely to benefit when they finally get better.

It’s a clear indication that Starmer has been stung by accusations that he is in hock to the unions by agreeing to so many pay claims.

This is to misunderstand what Labour is about. The party was born in 1900 out of the trade union movement and led by another Keir, the former child miner and union activist Keir Hardie. It came into existence to represent the Victorian urban working class.

They are now known as “working people” because references to class are considered divisive and old-fashioned in 21st Century Britain. But broadly it’s the same demographic.

So a pay settlement of 5.5 per cent for nurses and teachers following 11 per cent inflation should not have been unexpected nor caused the controversy it has.

That was the recommendation of independent pay review bodies and there’s not much point having them if governments simply ignore their advice.

The 14 per cent for train drivers is admittedly a deal with their union Aslef, but not so outrageous when you consider it’s over three years. Better to get Britain moving than grind to a halt because of strikes.

Starmer will tell his audience tomorrow: “That’s why I wanted to invite you here.

“To show that the decent, hard-working people who make up the backbone of this country belong here and that this government is for you.

“A garden and a building that was once used for lockdown-breaking parties, are now back in your service.”

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And in an admission that everything won’t always be hunky-dory under Labour, he will add: “This government won’t always be perfect.

“But I promise this: you will be at the heart of our government and in the forefront of our minds, at the centre of everything we do.“

This is the first shot at preparing us for what promises to be a bumpy budget on October 30. Rachel Reeves has hikes in capital gains tax, inheritance tax and maybe even council tax in her sights.

Those who are hit are going to squeal. None more so than equity fund managers who will have their profits taxed as income rather than at the lower CGT rate.

Abolishing the winter fuel allowance is going to cause vocal opposition when Parliament returns next week.

The least the PM could do is allow a debate and indicative vote rather than force this through under existing powers, even if some of his own MPs do rebel.