How Tories could consign themselves to electoral oblivion -paving the way for Reform - Kwasi Kwarteng

There is a world in which the Tories could be replaced by Nigel Farage and his merry band of insurgents.

No political party has a divine right to exist.

For the Tories, 2024 was a disaster but it was not an extinction event. Labour’s support may be wide but it’s as shallow as a kids’ paddling pool.

After only two months, we have seen, in no particular order: riots, inflation-busting pay deals for the unions, the elimination of the winter fuel payment and record boat crossings. This government will not last forever.
Who then is the opposition to this already faltering government?

The Conservatives are now involved in a lengthy leadership contest. Reform’s leader, Nigel Farage, seems more absorbed in American politics than the domestic scene at the moment. But this could change.

What is clear is that if the Tories do not sharpen and clarify their ideas on immigration, wealth creation and the sovereignty of our nation, they will go the way of the dodo.

Reform’s agenda has been described to me as a typical Tory manifesto of the 1980s. Hardly surprising, given that Nigel Farage himself was a Tory member until he left the party in 1992, after the Maastricht Treaty.

Extensive polling suggests that about 60% of the Reform voters in this last general election were Tory voters in 2019.

These voters are frustrated at Tory incompetence and backbiting - I was there and I freely admit we didn’t deliver. Most of all, the Tory record on immigration has outraged and alienated much of our core support.

More Tory complacency can only help Farage and his team. Politics is competitive. If there appears a gap on the right of our political scene, it will be filled by Reform or some other force willing to defend traditional values against the twin scourges of socialism and wokery.

That’s why I have always thought that appeals for the Conservatives to become more like the Greens or the Liberal Democrats were literally preposterous. It’s getting the order of things wrong.

First, consolidate the base, then, having accomplished that, reach out to the centre. Moving to “the centre”, immediately after Reform have won 4.1m votes, seems almost wilfully illogical.

Of course, consolidating your base is a lot easier said than done. It requires time, patience and skill. Frankly, these are qualities which some our most recent leaders have sorely lacked.

I can offer some things which will not work. Ridiculing your voters, calling them “racists”, pretending that mass immigration is not an important issue, laughing or despising British history- these are ways for the Conservatives to consign themselves to electoral oblivion, probably forever.

The Tories can no doubt commit electoral suicide all by themselves, but how ready will Reform be to pick up the mantle of the right of British politics?

The signs are that Reform is ambitious. They are reportedly building local associations and branches to be able to fight local elections.

Ultimately, however, I don’t believe the Tories will disappear. No doubt the Tories are flirting with disaster and death, but one has to assume that the party, and its new leader, will see sense and actually listen to Conservative inclined voters.

If they ignore the Reform voters entirely, then the Tories could face extinction. It would be well-deserved.