Tensions in the Pacific have been ramping up yet again as the Philippines braces for confrontation with China.
Manila is anticipating escalating hostilities with Beijing’s vessels in the South China Sea following two dangerous incidents in contested waters.
Alberto Carlos, chief of the Armed Forces of the Philippines’ (AFP) Palawan-based Western Command, warned the military was expecting “more coercive actions from China, short of armed attack”.
Carlos' intervention comes after two incidents over the weekend.
Philippine Coast Guard
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One incident saw Chinese vessels collide with and shoot water cannons at Filipino vessels.
The second saw China fire water cannons at three Fisheries Bureau vessels.
Both incidents took place well within the Philippines' side of the exclusive economic zone.
Carlos told CNN: “It’s already escalating… we expect more coercive action from China.
“After water cannon, we expect ramming, we expect them to attempt to board our vessel, which is something that we will not allow them to do.”
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A Chinese diplomatic vehicle leaves the Department of Foreign Affairs in Manila on December 11, 2023
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However, Carlos suggested Beijing would look to limit its actions to avoid triggering an American response under the Mutual Defence Treaty.
He added: “We are wargaming this and we are prepared for any contingency that will happen.”
The situation is creating increasingly fraught tensions between Beijing and Manila.
The Philippines summoned the Chinese Ambassador to protest the “back-to-back harassments”.
Manila’s Department of Foreign Affairs stated that “the actions of the Chinese vessels within the Philippine exclusive economic zone are illegal and violate the freedom of navigation”.
A Chinese Coast Guard ship sails near a Philippine vessel (R) that was part of a convoy of civilian boats in the disputed South China Sea
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President Ferdinand Marcos Jr also claimed the actions “have only further steeled our determination to defend and protect our nation’s sovereignty, sovereign rights, and jurisdiction in the West Philippine Sea”.
Beijing has been criticised for its conduct by a number of nations across the West, including the US and Australia.
The confrontations come just weeks after foreign policy hawk Dr Gordon Chang told GB News that China could attack the Philippines before turning its attention to Taiwan.
He said: “I think the military understands that Taiwan is too hard a target but we are seeing some very dangerous Chinese activities in the South China Sea.”