Keir Starmer is finding out the hard way just how insurmountable tackling small boats will be - analysis by Mark White

For all Sir Keir Starmer's tough talk, his pledge to "smash the gangs" - reiterated again this week in Germany - the events overnight are a sobering reminder of the scale of that challenge.

For three days this week, calm weather in the Channel saw the now familiar pattern of dozens of small boats launched towards the UK.

On Tuesday, the first good weather day in more than a week, 525 migrants made the illegal journey in eight small boats.

By the end of Wednesday, a further 614 had crossed in ten dinghies.

But come Thursday, the winds between France and the UK were starting to pick up again, making the voyage a bit more difficult.

So, on that day, just 211 reached UK waters in four small boats.

As the winds continued to strengthen into Thursday night, French and British authorities could relax a little.

Few if any migrant boats were expected to attempt the crossing on Friday.

But a sudden shift saw those winds die down, allowing the criminal gangs to spring into action.

What then happened, in the space of just a few hours, amounts to one of the most dramatic illustrations yet of how the capability and the expertise of the cross-Channel people smugglers have evolved in recent years.

It was an ad-hoc, opportunistic enterprise in 2018, where smaller boats, many stolen from local ports, set out more in hope than expectation of making it to UK waters.

But in the six years since, the number of migrants onboard, and the size of the boats have grown significantly, with most of the rubber vessels made to order in back street factories in China.

Those supply lines are now more sophisticated and robust than they've ever been. Should one supply line be compromised, others are quickly established.

But it's not just the acquisition of boats and equipment that's grown in sophistication. The ease with which the gangs can market their cross-Channel service in new territories, and the levels of cooperation involved in moving people across thousands of miles to France, have also matured into a well-oiled smuggling machine.

The ability to respond so quickly to a sudden shift in weather conditions shows just how coordinated and expert the gangs have become in their ability to read wind and tide.

The organised crime groups even employ professional forecasters, to ensure they're up to speed on the most optimum time to launch.

But it's their ability to respond so rapidly to those changing conditions, to coordinate logistics across a huge area of coastline and launch up to a dozen boats, that should worry authorities.

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The National Crime Agency is in the process of recruiting an additional 100 investigators to focus on cross-Channel people smuggling.

But this modest increase in investigatory resources will take some considerable time to fully bed in.

All the while, the organised crime groups just become more organised and better able to resist attempts to dismantle them.

With the numbers continuing to cross the Channel swelling to beyond 21,000 so far this year, Sir Keir Starmer is finding out the hard way just how insurmountable tackling small boats will be.

And just as we did with the previous Government, GB News will continue to document key days and record arrivals of small boat migrants under the new administration, measuring the success or otherwise of Labour's pledge to dismantle the people smuggling gangs.