I remember interviewing Gordon Brown a number of years ago, and he complaining that he wasn’t appreciated for the things he had done.
This was before the actual interview started and I reminded him that, but for he, we’d be using euros today instead of pounds.
I think that it’s always valuable, especially in these extremely challenging times we are living in in this country, with so much disorganisation, unclarity, and indecision, to remind ourselves of the bullets that we actually have dodged.
The latest is that we could be Germany.
Dr Roger Gewolb shared an exclusive analysis with GB News members
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Yes, we have slipped into a technical recession, where gross domestic product growth has been negative for two consecutive quarters.
But, at least, as I see it, this is only a “blip“, not a tragedy.
The “experts” say we may come right back out of this recession in the next quarter or two, so it could be quite short-lived.
If that is the case, and even if it’s not and it lasts longer, but stays at this kind of level, it will not do damage to the economy to any great significance.
Certainly, the 14 unnecessary interest rate rises from the Bank of England, which actually did nothing to curb our non-consumer-driven inflation (How are higher interest rates supposed to control the prices of food and energy and stop Houthis attacking shipping in the Red Sea etc?) have caused far greater damage to the British economy and businesses.
Germany, on the other hand, has the bittersweet honour of becoming the world’s third-largest economy (after the USA and China) as Japan slips into recession.
And Germany is the largest economy in Europe, but has had a devastating economic hit because of rising energy prices and has just had to downgrade its forecast projections made less than three months ago, for this year from growth of 1.3 per cent to a humiliating 0.2 per cent.
Now that isn’t a blip, that’s for sure.
Dr Roger Gewolb is a leading economics expert and champion for fairness throughout the consumer finance industry.
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Was UK recession inevitable?
Speaking on GB News today, Dr Roger Gewolb said: "People are saying it's going to be short-lived, but it was inevitable. I've been saying this would happen for a long time simply because the 14 interest rate rises were going to push us there. It slows down business, it slows down growth, it slows down investment.
“It actually perpetuates inflation and actually grows inflation and prolongs the time it takes for our kind of inflation, non-consumer driven or what they call ‘cost-push inflation’ to fall.
“That always falls by itself. Because raising interest rates doesn't really control food prices, or materials and services or fuel. Raising interest rates really does nothing to prevent that but it does slow the economy down. It wasn't a shock.
“I think it's probably a bit of a blip. And I wouldn't be too concerned about it. I would see it against the background of things. Like the Resolution Foundation Think Tank report said, the British economy has been in the doldrums for over 15 years. We really haven't gone anywhere in all that time.
“Our labour productivity is very low, our infrastructure is falling apart in places. I think that we have a lot of problems to solve, which obviously are being worked on. And this I think, is a momentary blip. This is not part of our fundamental issues that we're all struggling to overcome.
“When you look in the mirror on a morning, like this morning and go, ‘Oh, gosh, we're in recession. It doesn't really affect your life too much. It takes a long time for that to work through businesses, cutting back their investment, and then all the things that come from that. This is not a tragedy. It could reverse in the next quarter, or the next quarter or the quarter after that.”
