Ursula Von der Leyen's 'dirty deal' with Orban has come back to bite her already - analysis by Millie Cooke

Ursula Von der Leyen's 'dirty deal' with Orban has come back to bite her already - analysis by Millie Cooke

WATCH: Von der Leyen discusses support for Ukraine

EU Commission
Millie Cooke

By Millie Cooke


Published: 26/01/2024

- 16:19

As Hungary presses ahead in its battle with the EU, the European Commission President has very little wiggle room

The EU's battle with Hungary is only getting more and more heated - and the longer it goes on for, the more tightly Ursula Von der Leyen becomes wedged between a rock and a hard place.

The European Commission's battle with Viktor Orban began when the bloc withheld funding from the Putin-allied nation over rule of law concerns.


When Von der Leyen decided to hand Hungary £8.5billion, it initially seemed like it could lead to some level of de-escalation. But looking at it now, it seems like it served to do quite the opposite.

Weeks on, the EU Commission President is facing allegations of succumbing to blackmail from her own MEPs, while still having failed to solve the Hungary problem.

Von der Leyen

The EU's battle with Hungary is only getting more and more heated - and the longer it goes on for, the more tightly Ursula Von der Leyen becomes wedged between a rock and a hard place

PA

The issue has become so strained that the bloc is gearing up to use Article 7. Dubbed the "nuclear option", the measure would suspend Hungary's right to vote in the EU entirely.

While Von der Leyen claimed her decision to hand cash to Hungary was because it had shown sufficient effort to address concerns over the rule of law, her own MEPs have accused her of striking a "dirty deal" with the pro-Russia administration.

The assembly accused the commission of giving in to blackmail from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, in order to get his approval to begin membership talks with Ukraine - a fair question to ask, given before the funds were released Orban said granting Ukraine EU membership would be a "terrible mistake" which would "destroy the EU".

It's no wonder MEPs are asking what might have caused such a change of heart, if its not the money.

But "blackmail" or not, they are right to be concerned. It seems that the move has only emboldened the Hungarian leader. By taking the first £8.5 billion and subsequently allowing the EU to proceed with membership talks with Ukraine, Orban has sent the bloc a clear message - hand him money, and he'll bend to the EU's plans.

Given the EU is still blocking about £17billion in funding from Hungary, its not an ideal situation for the European Commission.

And this is what puts Von der Leyen in such a bind.

Unsurprisingly, Hungary has indicated that it could support the bloc's plans to hand more funding to Ukraine if it releases the funds.

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But MEPs have threatened legal action if any further funds are released without meeting the criteria to do so.

The European Commission President has very little wiggle room here.

The EU prides itself on being a key supporter of Ukraine, but the commission is nothing without the support of its member states. Meanwhile, if the nuclear option to suspend Hungary's voting rights is taken it gives Orban buckets of ammo to once again accuse Von der Leyen of pushing her own agenda on member states.

It's not clear what the EU's next move will be, but its clear that her so-called "dirty deal" with Hungary has come back to bite her already.

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