Nigel Farage’s potential return to politics could spark chaos for the Tories and Labour as the ex-Ukip leader threatens to throw the race wide open as Reform UK leader.
A recent JL Partners opinion poll found Reform UK would receive a six-point boost if Farage led the populist party, surging from 10 per cent to 16 per cent.
Experts warn Farage could prove catastrophic for Rishi Sunak’s Tories, with Conservative support dropping from 25 per cent to just 21 per cent.
Labour would also likely take a hit as Sir Keir Starmer’s support faces a four-point fall from 45 per cent to 41 per cent.
Nigel Farage’s return sparks chaos for Tories and Labour as ex-Ukip leader throws race wide open
PA
However, scratch beneath the surface and the picture gets even murkier for Britain’s two largest parties.
The number of people who do not know how they would vote jumps from nine per cent to 13 per cent in a situation where Farage, who has not been a politician since 2020, returns to the frontline.
In such a scenario, Reform UK remains the least impacted party, with their 11 per cent likely support among undecided voters dropping to eight per cent.
However, support for the Tories among up-for-grabs voters plummets from 12 per cent to just five per cent.
An even more profound drop is expected to hit Labour, with undecided voters backing Starmer collapsing from 19 per cent to seven per cent.
Voters who do not know how to vote also appear even more conflicted when pushed on who they would likely support.
The proportion of voters who do not know and still do not know who they would lean towards leaps from just 36 per cent to 69 per cent.
The figure jumps similarly rapidly for both ex-Tories and 2016 Brexit voters.
Reform UK is making most of its inroads among core pillars of the Conservatives 2019 coalition, with 25 per cent support coming from former Tory voters and a plurality of votes from Brexit backers.
However, the surge in number of undecided voters gives the populist party even more faith if Farage can get his teeth into yet another election campaign.
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PAThe 60-year-old, who stood in seven unsuccessful Westminster constituency campaigns, remains a marmite figure but would look to court supporters who have been left disappointed by Sunak’s record on immigration.
However, the main issues cited by voters were the improving the NHS and tackling the cost of living crisis.
Stopping illegal migrants crossing the English Channel ranked as the third most important issue, with curbing net migration figures languishing behind even further.
Speculation about Farage’s potential return continues to keep political fanatics on tenterhooks.
A source close to the ex-Ukip leader told GB News: “If Nigel comes back, we will overtake the Tories overnight.”
There has also been increased focus on Reform UK’s chances, with opinion polls appearing out kilter with recent by-election results.
The populist party is consistently underperforming compared to Ukip in 2015 and appears even further away from a parliamentary breakthrough.
However, Reform UK remains a thorn in the side of the Conservative Party.
Farage’s potential return could see the once mocked jester transform from 2019 Brexit kingmaker to 2024 Tory destroyer.
The poll makes for damning reading for Rishi Sunak
PASunak’s Conservatives have already been accused of not taking the threat from the right seriously enough.
A Tory MP, who has knowledge of Sunak’s current election strategy, told GB News: “There is no anti-Reform unit.
“I’ve been on at them for ages. It’s time for the dog to start wagging the tail.”
CCHQ refused to comment on the details of its “internal” campaign structures.
However, a spokesperson said: “A vote for Reform is a vote for Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party.”
A senior Reform UK source, who warned against believing the Tories are not mobilising against the populist party, simply added: “If they’re saying they’re facing electoral oblivion and they haven’t set up a unit to counter the biggest threat then they are either incompetent or complacenet.”
David Cameron’s campaign team set up the anti-Ukip unit to see off the threat from Farage in 2015, propelling the Tories to victory and limiting the populist party to just one MP.
North East Somerset MP Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg appeared to extend an olive branch to Reform UK during his GB News show last night.
He said: “What we need is a big, open and comprehensive offer to those in Reform.
Keir Starmer leads but could face a problem from undecided voters
GETTY“The Prime Minister should offer candidate selection to senior members of the Reform Party, such as the estimable Ben Habib, Richard Tice, and of course, the one and only Nigel Farage.
“With the help of Nigel Farage in a Conservative Government, with Boris Johnson probably returning as Foreign Secretary, and welcoming the likes of Ben Habib and Richard Tice into the Conservative Party, as well as pursuing genuinely conservative policies, winning the next election is well within reach.”
However, Farage slapped down Rees-Mogg’s offer just a few hours later.
He said: “It is an extraordinary thing to say but Jacob should play a bit of Supertramp.
“Their top track is called Dreamer and it's just not going to happen because Rishi is not bold, he has no leadership whatsoever.
“The truth is that the vast majority of Conservative MP's are Social Democrat, One Nation careerists.
“They have no courage, they have no vision. This will not happen, even though Jacob thinks it is a frightfully good idea.”