When Macron called an election after European wide polling in June, it was a gamble that risked not paying off.
And looking at the results from the weekend's polling, its bad news for the Ensemble politician.
Le Pen's National Rally secured a clear victory, taking 33.2 per cent of the first round vote.
The left-wing New Popular Front (NEP) came second, with 28.1 per cent, according to projections by pollsters Ipsos-Talan.
Le Pen's National Rally secured a clear victory, taking 33.2 per cent of the first round vote
PA
The Le Pen vote - How national populism is only getting stronger in France
1st Round percentages for Le Pen's party over time
1988: 9%
1993: 12%
1997: 15%
2002: 11%
2007: 4%
2012: 13%
2017: 13%
2022: 18%
2024: 34%
Embarassingly for Macron, his Ensemble alliance trailed in third place with just 21 per cent of the popular vote.
Based on those numbers, the hard-right camp would go on to secure between 230 and 280 seats in the National Assembly, the pollsters said.
This would leave it short of the 289 seats needed to win an absoloute majority - but the implications of the loss for Macron remain stark.
If Le Pen manages to rally support and secure an absolute majority, Macron would be expected to name National Rally's Jordan Bardella as prime minister.
This would result in an uncomfortable system of power sharing that would diminish Macron's power both nationally and on the world stage.
And Le Pen and Bardella's plan for France could send shockwaves through the establishment.
Their radical agenda includes policies such as drastically slashing immigration, bringing an end to birthright citizenship and creating a "national preference" for French citizens when it comes to welfare and social housing.
If Le Pen's party storms to victory, it would be a major knock for Macron - and ultimately could change the shape of France.
With the UK going to the polls in just three days, and Farage's Reform UK - also seen to be a populist party - climbing in the polls, it raises the question of whether Le Pen's victory is a signal of what is to come later down the line in Britain.
France's voting system is more proportional than the UK's First Past the Post - meaning it is harder for smaller parties to propel themselves into power. But the issues National Rally hopes to tackle in France are echoed by Reform's campaign in the UK.
And if Farage remains at the helm for years to come, and the Tories continue to lag behind, perhaps he too could see his party grow beyond what we might have expected.
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