Think the last two years have been bad? The pain for the Tories has only just begun - analysis by Millie Cooke

Think the last two years have been bad? The pain for the Tories has only just begun - analysis by Millie Cooke
Millie Cooke

By Millie Cooke


Published: 04/07/2024

- 23:25

Updated: 04/07/2024

- 23:33

If you thought the last two years were hard to watch, be warned: this may just be the beginning

After what has seemed like a disastrous few years for the Conservatives, they're about to face one of their longest nights yet. Exit polls have put Labour on course for a landslide victory, with the party expected to win a 170-seat majority.

Labour is expected to pick up 410 seats - almost two-thirds of the House of Commons’ 650 total. Meanwhile, the Tories are on course to take just 131 - the lowest in the party’s history.


While Labour's predicted win is eight seats shy of Tony Blair's 1997 landslide, if the exit polls become reality, the swing towards Starmer's party can be described as nothing short of seismic.

But the Tory party hasn't just been beaten on the left - the surge towards Reform UK on the right should also worry them.

Rishi Sunak

After what has seemed like a disastrous few years for the Conservatives, they're about to face one of their longest nights yet. Exit polls have put Labour on course for a landslide victory, with the party expected to win a 170-seat majority

PA

Nigel Farage's party is expected to pick up thirteen seats - more than predicted in the most recent MRP polls which put the party on course for between two and seven seats.

With the collapse of the SNP in Scotland, this would put Reform on course to be the fourth largest party in the Commons.

The result far outmatched anything achieved by Ukip or the Brexit party, an outcome like that should trigger warning lights in CCHQ.

It highlights an exodus of the Tories' key voters - with people moving both right and left to turn their back on the party.

This evening's exit poll is a disastrous indictment of Rishi Sunak's decision to call the July general election - and of the party's direction in the last few years.

But the pain for the Tories has only just begun.

Starmer will likely be in Downing Street tomorrow - leaving the Conservatives on track for what could be at least a decade in opposition.

As a result, Sunak is expected to resign in the coming hours, leaving a gaping power vacuum at the top of the party that has been in charge of the country for fourteen years.

But a question mark hangs over who will take over, and what the party will look like.

Much of that depends on who is left over to take the reigns.

A number of Cabinet ministers are at risk of losing their seats, including Jeremy Hunt and Grant Shapps.

Transport Secretary Mark Harper, Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride, Environment Secretary Steve Barclay and Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt are all "too close to call", according to the poll.

In the years leading up to the election, the Labour Party dragged itself over to the right to turn itself into an electable force. That fact, combined with the Reform UK surge, means the Tory party is likely to be eyeing a rightward swing.

But before it gets there, grassroots Tory supporters should be braced to watch their party tear itself apart first.

If you thought the last two years were hard to watch, be warned: this may just be the beginning.

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