Beware the Reform trap Nigel Farage is laying for the Tories...

The former Prime Minister, who once blasted Conservative colleagues for “banging on about Europe”, famously boasted to then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel about how easy it would be to see off the Vote Leave campaign.

However, with 52 per cent of voters opting to cut ties with the Brussels bloc, Cameron not only lost the referendum, he also lost the Conservative Party.

Boris Johnson emerged from the embers of the Tory Party after Theresa May desecrated its standing through bungled negotiations which would have kept the UK in a worst-of-both-worlds arrangement.

Similarly to Cameron and Johnson, Tory leadership contenders will constantly field questions about Farage and Britain’s relationship with Europe.

Rishi Sunak was constantly asked for his view on the European Convention on Human Rights and about the threat posed to the Conservative Party by Reform UK.

Despite ardent Remainers fixating on futile efforts to subjugate the UK to the democratically-deficient continental club, runners and riders will not be debating the merits of the UK leaving the EU almost a decade on.

Brexit 2.0 is the only issue on the lips of Eurosceptics, irrespective of whether they are crammed into depleted Conservative ranks or behind a resurgent Reform UK.

“I’ve got a fun suggestion that I think would liven up politics, engage the public, and see a massively increased turnout,” Farage said in his maiden speech, “why don’t we have a referendum on whether we continue to be members of the ECHR?”

I am not here to argue for or against adhering to decisions and interpretations stemming from the Strasbourg court.

However, I will make one thing clear: Dancing to Farage’s tune can only get you so far.

Tories can never, and I mean never, out-Farage, Farage.

The Conservative Party’s record on immigration, legal or illegal, perhaps even “irregular” if you’re in the Labour Government, failed to hit Farage’s standards both before and after Brexit.

Reform UK will not accept Brexit has been completed, especially given the Northern Irish issue.

And the Tory Establishment will not adopt the Thatcherite agenda extolled by Farage and pushed in Reform UK’s 2024 “contract with the people”.

However, the danger posed by the Tory Party over the ECHR is far more threatening than those three combined.

Farage is more than aware about how he influences the Conservative Party.

The 60-year-old, who transformed from Conservative court jester to Brexit kingmaker and now Tory obliterator, said: “ECHR membership is a Tory leadership issue because Reform are a force.

“The difference is we want to leave and they just pretend.”

If a Conservative leadership contender wins by cosplaying as a Eurosceptic they are in for a rude awakening when they march the Tory troops to the top of the hill and leave them there to march back down to the beat of the Strasbourg court.

More frightening for the Tories, a mischievous cousin of the centre-right will swan along to pick up the pieces.

Farage is constantly on the look-out for potential defectors.

Throughout his career, not including a number at council level or in Brussels, Farage courted four Conservative MPs to defect.

I do not believe he will convince any Tories to defect at this moment in time.

However, if the Tory Party is split down the middle, with an irreconcilable difference on ECHR membership, MPs could look to join the populist party.

The post-Brexit transformation of the Tory Party only came after Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless crossed the floor in 2014.

And I am sure more would have followed if Conservatives sided with a leader who wasn’t willing to “die in a ditch” to get Brexit done.

How can anyone truly believe a backbench grouping of steadfast Strasbourg critics will just sit and watch on as the Tory high command mull over membership?

I completely understand the reason why leadership hopefuls might tease Tories about Europe.

If the Labour leadership is any good measure, it is not the end of the world to renege on pledges to secure power.

However, without the ability to exercise the power to enact such change and up against a fairly united Labour Party, talk about withdrawing from the ECHR is nothing more than futile bluster.

Robert Jenrick is so far the only declared leadership hopeful to consistently advocate withdrawing from the ECHR.

The former Immigration Minister, who appears to have joined a grouping of born-again Brexiteers said: “Much like David Cameron’s doomed attempt to extract a better deal from the EU, reform of the ECHR is also destined to fail.”

Ex-Security Minister Tom Tugendhat has instead made contrasting comments on the matter, yesterday claiming he would be prepared to leave the ECHR despite once warning withdrawal could threaten the Good Friday Agreement.

Former Home Secretary James Cleverly also has a much more mixed record on the second major European question.

Cleverly, who unlike Jenrick and Tugendhat backed Brexit in 2016, was “not convinced” about leaving last year but now refuses to rule out such a move.

Suella Braverman, an early supporter of leaving the ECHR, is perhaps the only potential leadership contender who would defect if a Tory ‘wet’ emerged victorious before watering down on the ECHR.

However, it would be naive to assume high-profile backbenchers, inevitably gleeful about any commitment to hold a referendum, will not flirt with crossing over to Reform.

Fundamentally, self-serving MPs will shudder at Reform UK's bounce if Tory voters yet again feel let down and lied to when it comes to any question about Europe.

Leadership contenders should be left in no doubt; taking a Eurosceptic stance is important to secure the support of Tory members but doing so will only ensure they walk into an elephant trap set by Farage.

So, if you thought the Tories’ Brexit-induced civil war was bad, well I have something to tell you; you ain’t seen nothing yet.

Fortunately for the Tory Party, the only person likely to wield the authority to call a referendum on the ECHR is Sir Keir Starmer.

Despite the Prime Minister flip-flopping on a plethora of policy areas since succeeding Jeremy Corbyn in March 2020, I have a hunch the Remain-voting ex-lawyer will stick to his guns in opposing any poll about Europe during his Downing Street days.

I suppose he knows it hasn’t gone well for many of his predecessors.