The polls are in and it is not looking good for the EU.
A recent report by the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank has warned that Eurosceptic parties are on course to win in nine member states at the European Parliament elections in June. Nine other countries will see anti-EU parties come second or third.
The far-right Identity and Democracy group - which includes France’s National Rally, the Alternative for Germany and Italy’s League - is predicted to gain more than 30 new seats, with the report pointing out that far-right parties will have more involvement in EU decision-making than they have since the European Parliament became directly elected in 1979.
Given the far-right movement in Europe is heavily conditioned by a prevailing sense of Euroscepticism, it is unsurprising that the report's authors said it should serve as a "wake up call for European policymakers about what is at stake".
Eurosceptic parties are on course to win the European Parliament elections in nine member states
PA
One of the report's co-author's Dr Kevin Cunningham warned that the predicted outcome of the election "could have significant implications for the European Commission and Council’s ability to take forward environmental and foreign policy commitments".
Clearly, if this polling comes to fruition, it will have a huge impact on the EU's ability to function.
Not only will the dominating influence of far-right parties weaken EU support for Ukraine and net zero targets, it is also likely to cause disruption to EU finances when it comes to voting on the budget each year. Given the EU hands each of its members a veto over EU policy, nine member states led by parties which are opposed to the influence the bloc holds is likely to cause some disruption in the EU's ability to govern itself.
Hungary is a working example of this. The country has been locked in a battle with the EU for months over its funding of Ukraine, witholding its support for the proposals and using its veto to keep the bloc in a chokehold over the issue.
Tensions have become so heightened over the issue that MEPs in the European Parliament are now threatening the commission with legal action, after it paid out £8.5 billion to Hungary.
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The European Commission has said it released the funds because Hungary had shown sufficient effort to address concerns over the rule of law, with Von der Leyen saying it had no option but to approve the funds. But MEPs are suggesting it gave in to blackmail from the EU nation.
Hungary may be an extreme case, but imagine the functioning of the EU when there are nine countries led by parties which have raised questions over its very existence.
At best, it will shake the foundations of the European Union. At worst, it will pull the whole house down
