Bird Flu pandemic plan drawn up by scientists as they prepare for 'biggest threat'

The brains behind Britain’s Covid lockdown measures have met to prepare for the latest global pandemic threat amid growing fears the Bird Flu outbreak could transfer to humans.

The group of experts meets twice a year to decide which strain of seasonal flu to include in the vaccine for the upcoming winter season, with the H5N1 avian flu being considered following a record number of bird deaths worldwide in recent months.

Officials from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) are said to be developing “scenarios of early human transmission” in order to “facilitate preparedness.”

A National Trust ranger clearing dead birds from bird flu at Staple Island, one of the Outer Group of the Farne Islands, off the coast of Northumberland, in July 2022
Owen Humphreys

Since the latest outbreak of Bird Flu only one Briton has caught the disease, and the World Health Organization (WHO) say the threat to humans is low.

But experts are concerned amid recent reports of mass deaths in infected mammals, from seals to bears, as well as potential mammal-to-mammal transmission on a Spanish mink farm last year.

It also follows Cambodia reporting the death of an 11-year-old girl after she was infected by the H5N1 strain of Bird Flu, the Southeast Asian country’s first known human infection with the strain since 2014.

Health workers have since disinfected the property in Prey Veng province, east of the capital Phnom Penh, where the girl lived.

Speaking ahead of the meeting, Sylvie Briand, WHO director of global infectious hazard preparedness, said “"we are more prepared (than for Covid), but even if we are more prepared, we are not yet prepared enough," adding “We need to really continue the efforts for a flu pandemic."

Those working on the models in the UK include Professor Neil Ferguson, whose Covid projections led to the UK Government to force the first lockdown.

Experts are already discussing potential vaccines.

WHO-affiliated labs have two flu virus strains which are closely related to the H5N1 virus, which could be used by manufacturers to create a human vaccine if needed.

Whilst extremely rare, human-to-human transmission of H5N1 can happen.
Dado Ruvic

One of them was added following the previous WHO flu meeting in September 2022, with labs globally testing how closely both subtypes match the strain spreading among animals to determine whether any more updates are necessary.

A number of companies that produce season flu vaccines could also make pandemic flu vaccines.

Having the strains ready and prepared could save two months in vaccine development, according to Briand. The problem, however, would be producing enough vaccine quickly, experts warn.

Whilst extremely rare, human-to-human transmission of H5N1 can happen.

In 1997, 18 cases were discovered in Hong Kong, but these were maintained and ultimately did not lead to a global viral spread.

The World Health Organization warns that of the 868 human H5N1 cases reported to it over the last two decades, 456 were fatal.